天然气：非洲能源未来的关键

据全球天然气新闻伦敦报道，国际能源署(IEA)在日前发表的一份最新报告中指出，非洲将成为全球天然气市场的主要生产、消费和出口地区，非洲的天然气产量在未来20年里将增加一倍多。

根据IEA的《2019年非洲能源展望》报告中的调查结果，到2040年，天然气在非洲能源结构中的比例预计将从目前的5%上升至25%左右。

IEA表示，由于近几年来莫桑比克、坦桑尼亚、埃及、塞内加尔、毛里塔尼亚和南非等国的一系列重大天然气发现，非洲大陆天然气的未来可能会有所不同。2011年至2018年，这些国家的天然气储量已占全球天然气总储量的40%以上。

报告说，由于非洲将见证其人口的大幅增长以及其经济在未来几十年里将激增的快速工业化，这些发展很可能与非洲推动工业增长和其对可靠电力供应的需求相吻合。

未来20年，随着天然气成为主要油气生产商更优先考虑的项目，非洲的石油产量将趋于平稳。到2040年，非洲的石油日产量将从2018年的840万桶下降到820万桶，而天然气产量将从去年的2400亿立方英尺增至2040年的3170亿立方英尺。报告称，莫桑比克、坦桑尼亚和埃及将成为非洲未来天然气产量增加的主要驱动力。

但报告补充称，由于非洲天然气市场规模通常较小，而且人们担心负担能力，因此，发展天然气基础设施对非洲大陆来说将是一个重大挑战。

IEA表示，由于天然气市场即将出现供过于求的情况，这在很大程度上将取决于天然气供应的价格、分销网络的发展、基础设施的融资以及替代污染燃料的政策力度。

非洲在全球石油和天然气市场对“满足现代高效能源日益增长需求的重要性”将日益增加。

由于汽车数量增加一倍以及对作为烹饪燃料的液化石油气(LPG)需求的增加，从现在到2040年，非洲大陆的石油需求平均每天将增加310万桶。

IEA报告称，非洲到2040年的平均石油日需求量将达到700万桶，比去年日增310万桶。

IEA补充称，这一增幅高于中国的预期增长，仅次于印度的预期增长。

在天然气方面，非洲在此期间将成为全球天然气需求增长的第3大来源，这说明非洲的重要性不仅在于产量，而且在于消费量。

非洲的天然气需求量将从2018年的1580亿立方米增至2040年的3170亿立方米。

然而，IEA的报告对非洲的石油和天然气生产商发出警告，称由于非洲发展模式的变化，高度依赖碳氢化合物收入的国家正面临越来越大的压力。

报告称：“不断变化的全球能源动态意味着资源所有者不能想当然地认为他们的石油资源将能转化为未来可靠的收入。”

李峻 编译自 全球天然气新闻

原文如下：

Gas will hold the key to Africa's energy future: IEA

Africa will emerge as a major player in natural gas markets as a producer, consumer and exporter with gas output poised to more than double in the next two decades, the International Energy Agency said in a new report Friday.

The share of gas in the energy mix in Africa is projected to rise to around 25% by 2040 from 5% now, according to findings from IEA's Africa Energy Outlook 2019.

IEA said the future for gas in the continent could look different due to a series of major discoveries in recent years -- Mozambique and Tanzania, Egypt, Senegal and Mauritania and South Africa, which collectively accounted for over 40% of global gas discoveries between 2011 and 2018.

"These developments could fit well with Africa's push for industrial growth and its need for reliable electricity supply," the report said, as Africa will observe a huge rise in its population and the rapid industrialization of its economies, which will surge in the coming decades.

Oil production will plateau in the next two decades, as gas becomes a bigger priority for the key oil and gas producers.

Oil output will reach 8.2 million b/d by 2040 compared with 8.4 million b/d in 2018 while gas production will surge to 317 Bcm in 2040 from 240 Bcm last year. Mozambique, Tanzania and Egypt will be the main drivers of gas production, according to the report.

But developing gas infrastructure will be a major challenge because of "typically small market sizes and concerns about affordability,"the report added.

With an oversupply looming on the gas market, "much will depend on the price at which gas becomes available along with the development of distribution networks, the financing available for infrastructure and the strength of policy efforts to displace polluting fuels," the IEAsaid.

Africa's importance in the global oil and gas markets will increase to the "growing appetite for modern and efficient energy sources."

Oil demand in the continent will grow by 3.1 million b/d between now and 2040 due to the doubling of the car fleet along with increased demand for LPG as a cooking fuel.

The report said African oil demand in 2040 would average 7 million b/d from 3.9 million b/d last year.

This is higher than the projected growth in China and second only to that of India, IEA added.

On the gas side, Africa will become the third-largest source of global gas demand growth over the same period, outlining its importance not as a produce but also has a consumer.

Gas demand would increase to 317 Bcm in 2040 from 158 Bcm in 2018.

The report, however, sounded a note of caution to Africa's oil and gas producers that due to the changing development models in Africa,countries that are highly dependent on hydrocarbon revenues are coming under increasing pressure.

"Changing global energy dynamics mean that resource-holders cannot assume that their oil resources will translate into reliable future revenues," it said.